The World in 2020. Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council's Project

The World in 2020

Mapping the Global Future:

Report of the National Intelligence Council's Project

Publishing House: Cartier, 2008, Bucureşti



The document entitled Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council's Project has appeared on the site of the American National Intelligence Council (NIC), ever since December 2004.

The report is not a premiere, for it had been preceded by two similar studies, one of them published in 1997- World Tendencies 2010 and another one, published in the year 2000, World Tendencies 2015.

Mapping the global future is a sequel to the Report in 2004; it does not represent a strictly constitutional perspective, but it is the product of a largely independent reflexive approach, realized by colloquies, regional conferences, symposiums, workshops, and round tables organized on five continents. Tens of specialists in various fields have participated: futurologists, politologists, university professors in international studies, historians, managers, as well as numerous private and governmental bodies dealing with prospective studies.

The process of analysis and reflection lasted for a year and it was the contribution of over a thousand people. It is considered as an ongoing work, a way for catalysis and continuous dialog on the future, in a period of great development in the world of business.

The speed and the size of changes taking place in an increasingly globalized world will turn into characteristic features. Until the year 2020, new other features will add on, such as: new global players, significant growth of world economy (it is expected to be more than 80% bigger in 2020 than in 2000), new challenges for the governments, and so on. The state- nation will remain the dominant unit of global order, and the economic globalization plus the dispersal of technologies, especially in the field of intelligence, will bring tensions between the governments. The insecurity situation will expand, but it is not likely that a conflict could degenerate into a total war in the next 15 years. However, the countries with no nuclear weapons want and will still want to get them even more and international terrorism will not disappear. Some terrorist groups will be replaced with other Islamic extremist groups and there is the risk those groups might join local separatist groups. Terrorist attacks will be executed mainly with conventional weapons, but nuclear bio-chemical weapons will be more and more and more interesting for terrorists. Furthermore, terrorist attacks might be executed by involving the Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD).

The work develops on four scenarios, which are not considered real predictions, but they describe potential worlds, according to the way in which tendencies interact and disappear: "The Davos World", "Pax Americana", "A new Caliphate", and "The Cycle of Fear".

The report also contains: charts, tables, special topics. In the "conclusion", Dr. Dan Dungaciu refers to the "World in 2020: EU, USA, Russia and us".

We also recommend you the variant in English, which can be found on the internet at the address: www. cia.gov.
 

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